October 5 Playbook: Could PA Be ‘Firewall’ Against Trump?

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Analyst Says State Congressional Races Are Key For Dems. This is the PoliticsPA Playbook. 

☀ Good Monday Morning, PA. 29 days until the midterms.

? Your Morning Pick Me Up. Like A Rolling Stone. Bob Dylan

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PA Sports 
?  Steelers (2-2) | Sun vs. Indianapolis
?  Eagles (2-2) | LA Rams 20-24 | Sun vs. Jacksonville
?  Pitt (5-0) | Virginia Tech 35-33 | Sat vs. North Carolina 
?  Penn State (3-2) | Northwestern 13-34 | Sat vs. USC
?  Temple (2-3) | South Florida 17-13 | Sat vs. UConn
⚽  Union (11W, 6D, 10L) | Sat vs. Salt Lake
?  Flyers (0-1-2) | Carolina 2-3 (OT) | Mon at Tampa Bay
?  Penguins (2-0) | Montreal 6-5 (OT) | Mon vs. Winnipeg

?  What’s Happening Today. The PA House convenes at noon while the gavel sounds for the Senate at 1 PM.

?  What We’re Seeing. The DCCC is making its first investment in PA-01 in six years with a new ad entitled, “A Lot Has Changed.”

?  What We’re Hearing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will participate in a fireside chat at the annual Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry on Monday in Hershey. 

? Tips. PoliticsPA is Pennsylvania’s premier source for nonpartisan political news and analysis. Tips or press releases can be sent to steve@politicspa.com.

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1.  Analyst Points Out Massive Hole In Trump’s Election Plan: “Could Be His Undoing”

President Donald Trump signs th One Big Beautiful Bill

“Pennsylvania helped put Donald Trump back in the White House. Two years later, some of the congressional districts inside the same battleground state could help determine how much political room he has left to maneuver.

Political analyst Scott MacFarlane believes Pennsylvania could provide several of the seats Democrats need — and potentially create what he describes as a congressional “firewall” against Trump’s agenda during the final two years of his term.” | Dagens

Elsewhere

Democrats Project a Party Milestone in Congress: 100 Women in the House. “Democrats are increasingly confident they will have a record number of women serving in the House next year, after backing women in competitive districts they are now positioned to win.” | New York Times

PA-07: Mackenzie Highlights Record of Results As He Faces Voters Unhappy With Trump. “As he faces an electorate unhappy with Trump, Ryan Mackenzie is campaigning on what he calls his proven record of delivering results.” | Armchair Lehigh Valley

PA-07: Bob Brooks Stresses Working Class Roots to Connect With Voters Fed Up With High Costs. “The Democrat said his background – that of a working man with everyday struggles – is driving his run against incumbent Republican Ryan Mackenzie in the 7th Congressional District.” | Armchair Lehigh Valley

PA-08: Where Scott Perry, Janelle Stelson Stand On the Economy. “Candidates were asked the following four questions about the economy. Scott Perry submitted one response addressing the section as a whole, while Janelle Stelson responded to each question individually.” | WITF


2.   PA Lawmakers Push to Pass Statewide School Phone Ban Before Election Break

PA Capitol Dome
photo by Steve Ulrich, PoliticsPA

“With two voting weeks remaining until the November election, lawmakers are mounting a behind-the-scenes effort to get a school phone policy done.

The issue has been around since the first smartphones hit the market 20 years ago, but Pennsylvania is one of relatively few states that doesn’t have uniform rules for phones in classrooms, leaving the matter up to individual school districts and in some cases individual teachers.” | PennLive

Elsewhere

Democratic Socialists Scored Big Primary Wins. But That’s Not The Whole Story. “DSA-backed candidates, sharp critics of Israel, made historic gains. But a closer look makes clear they’re not taking over the Democratic Party – so far.” | Jewish Telegraphic Agency

PA Is Getting at Least $516M From a Meta Settlement. It Could Spark a Political Fight. “A political tug-of-war could be looming over a settlement that will bring as much as three-quarters of a billion dollars into Pennsylvania.” | Spotlight PA

Philly’s Malcolm Kenyatta Calls For Republican Aaron Bernstine to Resign Over Alleged Homophobic Slur. “Democratic State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta on Friday called for Republican Rep. Aaron Bernstine to resign from the Pennsylvania House after he reportedly used a homophobic slur against Kenyatta, who is gay, earlier this week.” | Philadelphia Inquirer

Coleman, Pinsley Discuss Affordability, Data Centers in Critical PA State Senate Race. “One of the most closely watched races in the upcoming election is the 16th state Senate District contest between Republican Sen. Jarrett Coleman, the incumbent, and Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley, a Democrat.” | Morning Call


3.  A Look at Partisan Registration Advantages Across NEPA

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“As Northeast Pennsylvania voters prepare to cast ballots next month in key races for federal and state office, Democrats and Republicans maintain sometimes significant voter registration advantages in different congressional, state House and state Senate districts across the region.

But putting too much stock into registration advantages can be risky, especially in districts where the advantage for either party is relatively modest during an election cycle where proposed data center development, affordability concerns and other issues have galvanized voters of all political stripes and partisan affiliations.” | Scranton Times-Tribune

Elsewhere

HD-44: Valerie Gaydos, Hadley Haas Face Rematch. “Republican Valerie Gaydos wants to continue her work representing Pennsylvania’s 44th state House District while Democratic challenger Hadley Haas hopes history does not repeat itself.” | Tribune-Review

2026 Election Preview: 18th Legislative District. “PoliticsPA has identified 19 State House races throughout the Commonwealth to focus on during the run-up to the 2026 election, as part of our 31 Races in 31 Days series.” | PoliticsPA

O’Connor Appoints Permanent Leaders For Three Key Departments. “The appointees will lead the city’s Fire Bureau, Office of Management & Budget and Office of Innovation & Performance.” | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

HD-117: Walsh, Benscoter Face Off. “The two candidates for state representative in the 117th District, incumbent Republican Jamie Walsh, and Democrat Jeremy Benscoter, told why they both favor moratoriums on data centers and offered their solutions for helping people deal with rising prices.” | Standard-Speaker


4.  What Do You Think?

  • Bob Harvie is the Best Choice For Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District | Philadelphia Inquirer
  • Where I Stand on Healthcare | Rep. Ryan Mackenzie
  • Where I Stand on Healthcare | Bob Brooks
  • From Philly to Texas, Democrats Have Moved On From Fetterman | Luis F. Carrasco
  • Election Integrity Matters. So Why Don’t Election Deniers Seem To Care? | Daniel Pearson 
  • Did Carnegie Mellon, One of Pittsburgh’s Crown Jewels, Just Get Sold to Miami? | Brandon McGinley
  • Bernstine’s Constituents Deserve the Truth About What He Said At McGrath’s | PennLive
  • Pennsylvania Is Running Out of Power. Washington Is Part of the Problem | T.J. Rooney
  • Josh Shapiro and the Pro-Life Movement | Christine Flowers
  • The Hidden Costs of Pennsylvania Dems’ New Energy Proposals | Kyle Sammin


5.  A “Foodie Call”

Foodie

“30% of Americans have gone on a “foodie call” date — when you agree to a date with someone you have no romantic interest in, simply for the free food or drinks — according to a recent DatingAdvice.com survey of 1k+ US adults. 

Before you start judging the young adults in your life, know that the trend is cross-generational: While Gen Zers and zillennials reported the highest rate of foodie calls (32%), boomers weren’t far behind at 26%.” | The Hustle


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The first full week of October. Make it a good one.

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